Russia-China Trade Explodes, US-China Exports Dip

China’s Exports Surge: Chinese exports in March surged nearly 15%, marking the first expansion in six months. The unexpected jump was fueled by demand for electric vehicles and their components and a swell in trade with Russia. Analysts had previously forecast a 7% contraction. The export boost raises hopes that Beijing will hit its 5% GDP growth target for the year, despite weak global growth and the country’s lowest growth target in over three decades.

Trade Shifts Between Countries: Recent changes in global trade have been influenced by various factors. Some notable shifts include:

1. China-Russia Trade Surge: China and Russia increased bilateral trade amid geopolitical tensions, boosting China’s export growth.
2. US-China Trade Tensions: Strained relations between the US and China caused a trade decline, with tariffs and technology restrictions worsening issues.
3. China-Southeast Asia Trade Resilience: Despite global challenges, trade remains strong between China and Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam, Singapore, and Malaysia.
4. Brexit Impact: The UK’s EU exit shifted trade patterns; businesses moved operations to the EU or explored new partnerships.
5. Regional Trade Agreements: Agreements like RCEP strengthened trade ties among Asian countries, counterbalancing global uncertainties.

These trade shifts highlight the complex interplay of economic, political, and logistical factors shaping international trade relations in today’s globalized world.

Przemysław Piętak, Supply Chain Advisory Director at CBRE, recently commented on the state of the global supply chain and the de-globalization trend that is reshaping trade flows. Here is a breakdown of his insights:

China’s Exports

“China’s overall export increased +15% y-o-y in March, with a significant shift in trade flows,” he said.

Trade with Russia and Southeast Asia increased, while China’s exports to the US, Taiwan, Japan, and Western Europe decreased.

China to US Exports saw a decrease of $3.633 billion.

Search for New Supply Sources

Piętak emphasized that US businesses must search for new supply sources and trading partners due to the decrease in imports from China. He suggested considering alternative sourcing locations like Poland and other CEE region countries.

He also recommended manufacturing goods closer to demand points.

This may involve sourcing from Mexico or increasing domestic production capacity, especially for goods with high transportation costs.