How the 2024 Elections Will Impact the Supply Chain

The 2024 US elections are set to throw a curveball in the supply chain, particularly for cross-border dynamics and commodity flows. Here's what's shaking up the scene:

• Mexico's Trade Surge: Mexico edged out China as the top exporter to the US, with trade swelling to $798 billion.
• USMCA's Future: With a $152 billion trade imbalance, all eyes are on the USMCA's 2026 review, negotiated under Trump’s presidency.
• Stalled Senate Bill: A bipartisan border bill’s been benched, putting a pin in changes till post-election.

China and Commodities

The elections could also dial up the drama with China. Seizures of shipments under the UFLPA signal tensions are still tight, and the supply chain might need to brace for more bumps.

• Mining and Markets: Both the US and Mexico are eyeing their mining sectors, crucial for EV production, as the political climate shifts.
• Cyber Threats: With cyberattacks spiking during election seasons, ports are on high alert. The Port of Los Angeles alone faces a shocking 54 million cyber attempts monthly.

A Look Up North

Alain Bédard, CEO of TFI International based in Montreal, doesn't mince words: "We still anticipate this freight recession will not change probably before ’25." Customers are on edge, shipments are on hold, waiting for the election dust to settle. Take GE Vernova, for example, their wind turbine business hinges on who’s in office — it's a classic "wait and see."

Predictions and Implications

What does this all mean for the future? Expect a year of cautious moves and big bets. The supply chain could see a shake-up, with more focus on North American trade and cybersecurity.

Source: Everstream.ai