"How Deep is the Current Freight Recession Compared to Past Freight Recessions?"

A post from Supply Chain Professor Jason Miller analyzes some key data to determine the true depth of the current freight recession and how it stacks up against the past. Here's what he found:

• Historic Depth: We're looking at the deepest freight recession separate from a broad economic downturn to date.
• Steep Decline: As of January 2023, the drop-off was twice as deep as the last major dip in 2018-2019.
• Current Status: By February 2024, we're down about 4% from March 2022 peak.

Payroll Patterns:

• The current cycle saw a smaller payroll dip (around 30,000 jobs) versus past recessions like in 2000.
• A notable factor? Yellow Corp's flop had a big hand in those numbers.

Spot Market Slump:

• With trucking payrolls nearly steady since March 2022, just a 0.3% drop, this explains the ongoing dry van spot market slump.

What's Next?:
Jason Miller notes, "we continue to experience a very deep freight recession yet the overall economy is humming along." This is shaking up the old belief that trucking forecasts the economy. Turns out, GDP's not the crystal ball for trucking trends.

Source: Jason Miller/LinkedIn