The market has spoken – and it likes what it sees in RXO's big Coyote Logistics grab. Let's break down the Wall Street reaction and what it means for the freight industry.
The Numbers Game
- RXO stock up more than 20% to $24.81 as of closing Tuesday
- Stifel boosts price target to $26 from $19
- Jefferies even more bullish, raising target to $30
"The acquisition will significantly enhance RXO's scale within the logistics industry." - Stifel analysts
Why Investors Are Buzzing
- Creates 3rd largest brokered transportation provider in North America
- Deal "immediately and significantly accretive" to earnings and cash flow
- 80% increase in $1M+ customers expected
But some analysts are waving caution flags.
The Devil in the Details
- Deal relies on synergies to keep RXO's "highly-leveraged balance sheet" in check
- Limited visibility into Coyote's business quality
- Doesn't align with RXO's previous organic growth targets
"The risk/reward balance still warrants a Hold rating on the stock." - Stifel
- Q1 2024 revenue: $913M (down from $1B year-over-year)
- Adjusted EBITDA within forecast
- 11% increase in brokerage volume
The Big Picture
- UPS offloading non-core assets (Remember the UPS Freight sale to TFI?)
- Freight brokerage consolidation heating up
- Tech integration will be crucial for realizing synergies
Sources: Investing.com | Investopedia
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