Shifts in U.S.-China Trade Landscape Over 20 Years

China-U.S. Trade Shift Over 20 Years

Since 2010, China’s dominance as the top non-North American trading partner with the U.S. has seen a gradual decline. In 2010, China had a market share of 44.5%, which peaked to 50.1% with Hong Kong included. After a spike in 2018, due to increased tariffs, the share fell to 35.8% in 2023.

Top Commodity Categories and Market Shift

Between 2016 and 2022, the top 10 U.S. import categories (2-digit HS codes) showed various shifts. China experienced growth in seven of these categories, but lost market share in five of them. Despite this, China remained the dominant Country of Origin (CoO) in eight out of the ten categories.

Rise of South and Southeast Asian Countries

South and Southeast Asian countries like India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia showed significant growth over this period, taking import share from China. Conversely, industrially mature markets like Europe, South Korea, and Japan did not experience this shift.

Category-Specific Analysis

Each category showed different trends. For instance, HS-94 (Furniture, Bedding, etc.) imports from China grew 5%, but its share decreased by 17.3%. Vietnam saw the most growth in this category, at 186.3%. On the other hand, HS-85 (Electronic Machinery, Sound Equipment, TV Equipment, etc.) saw phenomenal growth from Vietnam at 556.3%.

FURNITURE

From 2016 to 2022, China's market share in the U.S. for HS-94 category (Furniture, Bedding etc.) decreased by 17.3%, while Vietnam, demonstrating the most growth among other countries, increased its market share by 12.4%.

ELECTRIC MACHINERY

Between 2016 and 2022, the U.S. import market share of China in the HS-85 category (Electric Machinery etc.) decreased by 9.5%, while Vietnam's share drastically increased by 9.0%, showing the highest growth among all countries.

PLASTICS

From 2016 to 2022, the share of China in the U.S. import market for HS-39 category (Plastics and Articles Thereof) increased by 3.2%, while Belgium made the most significant progress with a share increase of 5.8%.

VEHICLES & PARTS

From 2016 to 2022, India had the highest growth in the U.S. import market for HS-87 category (Vehicles, Except Railway or Tramway, and Parts Etc), increasing its share by 2%, while China maintained the largest share, albeit with a modest increase of 1.4%.

Trade policies are causing real changes in the US-China relationship.

Since the imposition of tariffs on China in 2018, China's share of US container imports have dropped from 48% to 38%.#logistics #supplychain #Asia pic.twitter.com/k7teaND3Bp

— Benjamin Gordon 🇺🇦🚚✈️ (@benjaminhgordon) June 12, 2023

Source: Descartes