Brokers Winning Nervously

Happy Friday. A new broker survey found rates and revenue both climbing this year, and 83% of brokers still expect other brokers to fail. Here's why.

Plus:

• ACT Cuts Its Own Forecast

• Due Diligence Did Not Save This Broker

• Brake Safety Week Starts Sunday

💡 QUESTION OF THE DAY:

_____% of brokers think that poor management is the main reason other brokers will fail.

🍳 WHAT’S COOKIN’ IN FREIGHT

📉 ACT Cuts Its Own Forecast. A month ago, ACT Research pointed to a possible freight recovery later this year. Now, per Arrive Logistics's August market update, ACT lowered its Cass Freight Index forecast for the second half of 2026 and 2027, citing rising interest rates, elevated fuel prices, and a stalling labor market. Capacity backs up the caution too: ACT estimates the Class 8 tractor fleet was unchanged month-over-month in August and down 1.8% year-over-year, with only modest growth expected through 2028. Cass Freight Index shipment volumes fell 4.8% year-over-year in July, a steeper decline than June's 4.1%.

⚖️ Due Diligence Did Not Save This Broker. A federal court in Nevada ruled Aone Brokerage could be held liable for a fatal 2022 crash, even though the company says it vetted the carrier it hired. Aone's owner had admitted knowing that carrier, Lucky Transport, had a history of re-brokering loads, and Lucky quietly handed the load to a former employee still driving on its fuel card. The court said that knowledge alone was sufficient to override any due diligence defense. Attorney Tyler Biddle says the case also touches a separate legal theory: vicarious liability, holding one party responsible for another's mistakes without direct negligence. It is the second such ruling this month, after a similar finding against Penske.

🔧 Brake Safety Week Starts Sunday. CVSA's annual multi-state brake inspection blitz runs Aug. 23-29, with roadside crews pulling trucks nationwide for closer brake checks. Owner-operators have historically been about half as likely to be inspected during this event as during the spring Roadcheck blitz. Three states have newly climbed into the top 10 toughest for brake violations since last year's event: New Mexico, Virginia, and Missouri. This year's inspectors are focusing specifically on brake drums and rotors, a shift from the linings and pads targeted the past two years. Nationally, brake violations have grown to account for a larger share of all roadside violations in recent years.

PRESENTED BY GOODSHIP

“GoodShip does a really good job of breaking data silos down and creating a single source of truth.”

That’s how Michael Cherney, CEO & Co-founder of Cooler Logistics, described GoodShip in a recent webinar on what it takes to run a modern brokerage.

For growing brokers, the challenge isn’t a lack of data, it’s having that data spread across systems and turning it into decisions that improve the business. GoodShip gives brokerages one place to understand performance across customers, carriers, lanes, and reps.

For Cooler Logistics, GoodShip has brought:

• Better visibility across the business

• Stronger customer conversations

• More insights to help reps grow their books of business

As Michael shared, “The analysis that GoodShip has provided has been a big catalyst for our growth.”

Watch the webinar recording to learn how Cooler Logistics is using GoodShip to make better decisions and drive growth. 🚀

A Raise With a Catch

Truckstop and Bloomberg Intelligence's new H1 broker survey found more than 80% of brokers saw spot rates rise this year, and 63% reported higher revenue. The same survey found 83% expect other brokers to go out of business in the coming months.

Poor management (48%) and low rates (24%) top the list of reasons brokers give for why others will fail, even as their own numbers improve. Nearly half of brokers say shippers now take three to four weeks to pay, and another 30% say a month or more.

A third of brokers who saw rate gains put them at 25% or more, and nearly three-quarters expect demand to keep climbing over the next six months.

Underwriters Are Fleeing

None of the survey's own reasons mention insurance. Thom Albrecht, chief revenue officer at insurance firm Reliance Partners, described the current insurance market: "It's a total frenzy right now."

He said there have been three stages since the May 14 Montgomery Supreme Court ruling that opened brokers to carrier-style liability: "total chaos" for any broker renewing coverage in May or early June, a calm that set in through June, and then another shock on July 23, when a jury verdict against C.H. Robinson sent underwriters fleeing the market.

Two have already exited the freight-broker market entirely, "backing the paper over in London," Albrecht said.

What It Actually Costs Now

Primary auto liability coverage is running in the mid-double digits. Excess coverage above $5 million is worse: a broker with $30 million to $40 million in revenue that paid roughly $10,000 a year for coverage could now face $30,000 to $40,000.

One brokerage reduced its coverage from $20 million to $15 million in hopes of improving its renewal odds, then had to secure $40 million to $50 million in coverage after the Robinson verdict, at a price Albrecht said the company "would have never envisioned four or five months ago."

A Carrier List, Cut in Half

That liability exposure is already reshaping how brokers vet carriers. Daniel Ilg's brokerage, ILG Logistics in Tinley Park, Illinois, could match freight against 15,000 to 18,000 carriers before the ruling.

Today that pool is a little over 8,000, culled down to companies whose government safety data alone can survive a lawsuit. If a carrier is below a certain safety threshold, "there is no relationship that my attorney is going to be okay with" superseding the numbers, Ilg told Bloomberg.

The C.H. Robinson verdict from July 23rd also shows how blurry that line can get. The jury found the driver was a "borrowed employee" of C.H. Robinson.

Albrecht said someone connected to the trial told him the driver's own C.H. Robinson app factored into that finding. "It felt like my DoorDash delivery dude who delivered my burrito was my employee at that moment," he said.

PRESENTED BY RESOLVE LOGISTICS

You price freight all day — have you ever priced your own paycheck? Same book, same loads: run one month as a W-2 rep, then as an agent, and then as an agent under our model. Resolve built the calculator that shows you the number in about a minute.

Run your number → shiprelo.com

 🌎 AROUND THE FREIGHT WEB

📦 500 Cities Are Getting Amazon Drones. Amazon said it will expand Prime Air drone delivery to nearly 500 U.S. cities and towns by the end of 2026, up from 11 sites across seven states today.

🥬 Celery METHamorphosis. U.S. Customs and Border Protection found methamphetamine worth almost $15 million hidden in a celery shipment crossing from Reynosa, Mexico, into Pharr, Texas.

📈 One Notch From Investment Grade. S&P just upgraded XPO's credit rating to BB+, reversing last July's downgrade and putting the LTL carrier one step away from entering investment-grade territory.

🅿️ You Can't Park There, Sir. A Charlotte trucker's rig got towed 30 minutes after his parking window closed, racking up $9,000 in fees. Now a city councilwoman is going after the tow company.

🎯 One 3PL Catches a Scammer Daily. Georgia-based 3PL FLS Transportation catches someone trying to steal one of its loads roughly once a day, and its most recent loss was $650,000 worth of tools.

🚀 Meet Freight's Fastest Growers. 167 freight and logistics companies landed on this year's Inc. 5000. Together, they posted a 114% median three-year growth rate, $23.1 billion in combined revenue, and 115,631 employees.

🎣 THE FREIGHT CAVIAR CORNER

Catch the Epay Manager x FreightCaviar live event “Scaling Like a GOAT” Thursday, August 27th, at 12 PM EST/11 AM CST over on LinkedIn.

Sign up here.

😂 FREIGHT HUMOR

FreightCaviar has partnered with Alpha Staffing & Recruiting, a boutique logistics staffing and recruiting firm, to provide you with available roles in our industry. Click the role to learn more and apply.

• Moving Sales Representative

• Dispatcher

• Sales Executive

🎧 THE FREIGHT CAVIAR PODCAST

Ted Alling, Managing Partner at Dynamo Ventures, and Co-Founder of Access America, joined Reed Loustalot on the FreightCaviar Podcast to discuss how he helped build a freight brokerage from a startup into a $500 million business without outside capital, the early days of Access America and the culture that fueled its growth, and how Dynamo is backing the next generation of freight founders.

Watch it on YouTube, or listen to the full episode on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

🎙️ FREIGHT GONG FRIDAY

This Freight Gong Friday, we are joined by Ryan Schreiber, Chief Growth Officer at Metafora, as our special guest.

Tune in here. Presented by Epay Manager.