C.H. Robinson's Crystal Ball Points to 2027

Happy Friday. For everyone asking how long this market will last, C.H. Robinson just gave an answer: not for long, because it's going even higher.

Plus:

• Diesel Hits an All-Time High

• Broker Margins Just Broke Their Streak

• 176 Loads Stolen, and Counting

💡 QUESTION OF THE DAY:

Route guides failed for ___% of shipments over 600 miles last month, more than double the rate for shipments under 400 miles.

🍳 WHAT’S COOKIN’ IN FREIGHT

⛽ Diesel Hits an All-Time High. According to GasBuddy, which tracks live prices at the pumps, the national average price of diesel hit $5.820 a gallon Thursday, surpassing the previous record of $5.819 set in June 2022. AAA also reported a nearly 10-cent overnight jump. Diesel is up roughly 60% from a year ago, when it averaged $3.70 a gallon, driven by the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries that pushed Moscow to ban exports. Brent crude touched $97 a barrel this week, up almost 10% since Monday. U.S. diesel stockpiles fell in late August to their lowest seasonal level since the 1980s, according to the EIA.

📊 Broker Margins Just Broke Their Streak. The Transportation Intermediaries Association's (TIA) Q2 2026 report shows freight brokers moving more freight at higher prices: shipments up 4.8% year-over-year, revenue up 25.7%. Gross margins fell to 17.8%, down 0.2 points quarter-over-quarter, the first sequential dip this cycle, and down 120 basis points annually. TIA attributes the squeeze to carrier rates recovering faster than brokers could raise pricing. Intermodal was the standout mode, up 26.6% quarter-over-quarter to its highest weekly level since November 2021, and truckload's share of broker activity slipped to 72%. TIA CEO Chris Burroughs called margin "the one area where brokers no doubt seek further improvement."

🌾 176 Loads Stolen, and Counting. Texas authorities have charged three men with organized crime after tracing 176 grain loads, totaling 9.12 million pounds and worth around $800,000, stolen from Guadalupe County facilities. The case started in March with a single complaint and grew into an investigation spanning five counties and the Texas Department of Agriculture. Investigators have confirmed 176 loads so far and are examining additional shipments that could push the total past 200. Authorities haven't said whether the crew used its own trucks or fraudulent paperwork to move the grain, only that scale tickets, storage records, and financial documents were what gave the pattern away.

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C.H. Robinson Predicts Rate Hikes

C.H. Robinson's 2027 truckload linehaul forecast, published Thursday, projects double-digit rate growth across every equipment type: 10% year-over-year for dry van, 11% for reefer, 10% for flatbed.

The 2027 increase appears in the same report in which C.H. Robinson trimmed its own 2026 forecast for both dry van and refrigerated truckload.

C.H. Robinson cut its 2026 dry van linehaul forecast to a 30% year-over-year rate increase, down from the 34% increase it projected in July, citing cooling rates from their early-July peak and demand that isn't rising as fast as expected.

The 2027 number lands at 10% on top of that. The report expects the biggest jumps in the first half of 2027, against softer 2026 comparisons and seasonal capacity tightening.

Reefer Splits by Region

Refrigerated linehaul rates are being cut to a 31% year-over-year rate increase for 2026, with an 11% rate increase forecast for 2027.

The current market is splitting by region: northern harvest states, including the Upper Midwest, Pacific Northwest, and Great Lakes, are seeing load-to-truck ratios climb to two to three times their early-summer levels and spot rates rise in the double digits as potatoes, onions, apples, and cherries move.

Southern markets are doing the opposite, with ratios falling to a third or half of summer levels as produce season winds down. C.H. Robinson expects southern capacity to hit its annual low point this month before easing.

Flatbed Gets Its First Forecast Ever

For the first time, C.H. Robinson is publishing a flatbed rate forecast at all: a 28% year-over-year rate increase for 2026, 10% for 2027.

Flatbed has remained strong amid industrial demand: the ISM Manufacturing PMI hit 55.6 in July, its best reading since May 2022, and renewable energy generation, including solar, hydropower, and wind, grew by 21%, 9%, and 6% in the first half of 2026.

Flatbed linehaul rates, the base per-mile rate before fuel surcharges, were still averaging $2.90 a mile even after easing 1.6% from their summer peak. Residential construction remains the one soft spot pulling in the opposite direction.

What's Pushing Rates Higher

C.H. Robinson's own carrier network points to the same cause across all modes: capacity is leaving the market faster than freight demand is growing.

Insurance costs are climbing double digits with higher deductibles. Federal enforcement actions are shrinking the driver pool, and carrier bankruptcies are adding to the capacity loss.

Route guide depth (how far a shipper has to dig into backup carriers on a scale where 1.0 is perfect performance, and 2.0 is extremely poor) averaged 1.35 across North America in August, with route guides failing for 8.5% of shipments over 600 miles, more than double the 3.6% rate for shipments under 400 miles.

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 🌎 AROUND THE FREIGHT WEB

🔄 TruckSmarter Reverses Its Own Shutdown. Two days after announcing it was closing for good, TruckSmarter told carriers and brokers it's staying open after all, thanks to a buyer it still won't name.

📉 Duffy Blames ELD Cheating for Falling Rates. The DOT secretary says ELD-cheating drivers running over HOS limits are driving down rates and pushing small carriers out of business. Up to 70% of ELDs may be affected, researchers say.

🤝 FitzMark's 11th Deal Targets Trade Show Freight. The Indianapolis broker just bought a Colorado logistics provider that's spent 28 years handling store displays and convention booths, its fourth acquisition since 2025 alone.

🚔 A Speeding Stop Caught a Wanted Killer. Utah police pulled a semi over for doing 20 over in a construction zone and discovered the driver had been a nationwide fugitive for two months, wanted in four deaths back in California.

🛠️ Carrier Vetting, Automated for $0. One broker skipped the paid tools entirely, wiring a free FMCSA WebKey into a Google Sheet that auto-fills carrier status on every MC number pasted in.

🚨 Alabama's Enforcement Tally Keeps Climbing. Alabama troopers have logged 561 ICE arrests and 1,000-plus ELP violations since October. Governor Ivey credits the crackdown with a 24% drop in crash fatalities this year.

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🎧 THE FREIGHT CAVIAR PODCAST

John Ferguson, Founder & CEO of Pivot Supply Chain Solutions, Inc., joined Reed Loustalot on the FreightCaviar Podcast to discuss how he grew his brokerage from zero to $50M, what it took to build the company from a basement with no credit, and why relationships and phone calls still matter in freight.

Watch it on YouTube, or listen to the full episode on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

🎙️ FREIGHT GONG FRIDAY

This Freight Gong Friday, we are joined by Danny Frisco, Co-Founder & CEO of Rapido Solutions, as our special guest.

Tune in here. Presented by Epay Manager.