Mega Bankruptcies Rise: Economic Tipping Point?

In a year marked by uncertainty, businesses of all scales are navigating treacherous waters. Major corporations, from SVB Financial, Bed Bath & Beyond, and even the trucking giant Yellow, have sought chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Their reasons?

• Economic Challenges: Elevated inflation, higher interest rates, diminished government aid, and enduring supply-chain disruptions.

• Debt Backfire: Many businesses that once capitalized on low-interest rates are now ensnared in the financial repercussions of growing interest.

Large-scale business bankruptcies, often referred to as "mega bankruptcies," are not merely indicators of corporate distress but also significant red flags for the broader economy.

• Ripples Through Financial Market: For instance, the bankruptcy of SVB Financial Group, with nearly $20 billion in assets, instigated fears of a recession, compelling the Federal Reserve to intervene and stabilize the markets.

• Massive Job Losses: A single major corporate collapse can result in tens of thousands of job cuts. Yellow's bankruptcy led to the loss of around 30,000 jobs.

• Potential for Recession: Although the current rise in bankruptcies doesn't suggest an impending "doom-death loop," some analysts, like Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at GlobalData TS Lombard, feel that increasing bankruptcies combined with a weakening stock market and escalating credit-card delinquencies may be precursors to a recession.

However, these corporate struggles aren't limited to traditional sectors. DTC (Direct-To-Consumer) businesses are also feeling the heat. Two major public DTC companies—Smile Direct Club and Blue Apron—have recently declared bankruptcy or sold for a fraction of their peak valuation.

• Smile Direct Club: Valued at almost $9B in its 2019 IPO, but filed for bankruptcy after reporting an $86mm loss in 2022 and a 19% decline in Q2 ‘23.

• Blue Apron: Once worth over $3B, it's now selling for just $103mm, having lost $110mm in 2022 and shrunk by 15% in Q2 ‘23.

Further analysis of public DTC brands reveals several others, including Allbirds and Purple, that check similar boxes of unprofitability and declining revenue, painting a concerning picture for their future.

Sources: WSJ | Ben Cogan/LinkedIn

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Big-Company Bankruptcies Rising Briskly

Chapter 11 filings estimated to have tripled during the first half of 2023 from one year ago

“Mega bankruptcies,” filed by companies with +$1B in assets hit 16 in first half of 2023 versus 17 year average of 11 for that same… https://t.co/XNCwc9uSMq pic.twitter.com/8GViERji3m— Prodigal (@ProdigalThe3rd) October 8, 2023