Here We Go Again

HAPPY HUMP DAY.

If this week feels like a rerun, that's because it is, and the math is all in today's feature.

Plus:

• Broker Margins Tanked in June

• EPA Proposal Could Save Truckers $12B

• First ELD Rewrite Since 2016

💡 QUESTION OF THE DAY:

🍳 WHAT’S COOKIN’ IN FREIGHT

📉 Broker Margins Tanked in June. June's spot broker margin came in at 13.45%, and contract margins dropped to just 9%, which is a level Adamo said falls short of what it takes to run a brokerage and doesn't move the profit needle. Nearly one in five loads landed as a "fat lip," where the broker lost money outright. Spot margins are "down almost 13%" from a year ago, Adamo said. He expects contract rates to climb another 10-15% over the next quarter as brokers catch up on repricing. Rates should cool off some between now and Labor Day, Adamo added, before the retail peak hits this fall.

🚛 EPA Proposal Could Save Truckers $12B. EPA's new proposal would end mandatory DEF derates (the forced slowdowns triggered by exhaust-fluid system failures) and replace them with dashboard warnings instead. It also rolls back emissions warranty coverage to 100,000 miles from 450,000 and delays a useful-life mileage extension to 2030, while keeping the strict 2027 NOx standard in place and preserving about 90% of the rule's emissions cuts. EPA estimates $12 billion in industry savings, or about $6,000 per new truck. "So, we protect the air, and we protect your pocketbook," said EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin.

📋 First ELD Rewrite Since 2016. FMCSA's newly released 2026 regulatory agenda includes a formal proposal to rewrite ELD rules for the first time since the 2016 mandate took effect. The agency says the changes will "streamline and improve the clarity of the regulatory text and ELD specifications" following years of feedback from state enforcement agencies, vendors, and carriers. A 2022 preview of the changes drew more than 1,000 public comments across five areas: pre-2000 engine applicability, malfunction handling, the process for removing a device from FMCSA's certified list, technical specs, and certification standards. No date has been set for the formal proposal.

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Diesel Up, Rates Down — Again

Diesel just posted its biggest weekly jump in months, snapping a nine-week decline, with the fuel spike tied directly to renewed conflict in Iran.

At the same time, van and reefer spot rates gave back everything they'd gained during the July 4th spike, while flatbed posted its second-largest weekly drop on record.

Fuel up, rates down — welcome to Groundhog Day.

The Blockade Returns

U.S. forces struck Iranian targets Tuesday for a third consecutive night, aimed at "degrading Iranian capabilities used to attack commercial shipping," Central Command said.

An hour later, the Navy restarted its blockade of Iranian ports around the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude (the crude oil that gets refined into U.S. diesel) rose 3.5% to $86.18 a barrel Tuesday, on top of a nearly 10% jump the day before, putting it back exactly where it was before the U.S. and Iran signed their ceasefire in mid-June.

On Monday, Trump said the U.S. would charge a 20% reimbursement fee on cargo moving through the strait, which is roughly $32 million for one fully loaded supertanker at current oil prices, more than 15 times what Iran itself has charged for the same passage.

He reversed himself a day later, swapping the fee for vague "trade deals" with Gulf states. Iran agreed to toll-free passage for 60 days from the mid-June signing (a window that runs out around August 16), and officials there have already said the strait "will not return to prewar conditions" once it expires, with Iran planning to charge its own fee for passage.

Why Is Diesel Outrunning Crude?

The DOE's benchmark diesel price (the one most fuel surcharges are built on) rose 21.8 cents to $4.796 a gallon Monday. Diesel is climbing faster than crude itself: the spread between Brent and diesel futures widened to $1.84 a gallon Monday, one of the highest levels since the war began, against about 87 cents before it started.

A separate TD Cowen/AFS Logistics report found that parcel carriers' fuel surcharge revenue rose 65.4% year over year in Q2, on a formula built to hold: even if diesel drops back to $4 a gallon, shippers still pay a 24% surcharge, compared with 21% under last year's tables.

Rates Gave It All Back

Van spot rates fell just under 14 cents during the week that ended July 10, after rising more than 11 cents to an all-time high the week before, according to FTR/Truckstop data.

Reefer plunged 26 cents that same week, after jumping 25 cents during the July 4th week. Flatbed fell 14.6 cents, which is the largest one-week drop on record except for one week in April 2020. All three were still 40-50% higher year over year.

FTR expects rates to keep falling this week too, based on seasonal patterns, just not as sharply as they just did.

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 🌎 AROUND THE FREIGHT WEB

🔋 LA Port Offers Carriers Up to $24M for Electric Trucks. The Port of Los Angeles opened an incentive program: carriers registered in the port's drayage registry can receive up to $24 million to purchase at least 10 battery-electric Class 8 trucks, with a $300,000 cap per vehicle.

💰 Driver Pay Just Had Its Wildest Two Months Ever. AscendTMS and Superior Trucking Payroll's joint index jumped 13.5% between April and June, the sharpest two-month move in its history.

🔍 FMCSA Eyes Bigger Clearinghouse Overhaul. A proposed rule expected in November would expand access to driver drug-and-alcohol violation records and tighten oversight of noncompliant medical examiners.

⚖️ Foreign Money Is Bankrolling Lawsuits Against Truckers. Outside investors have been quietly funding lawsuits against carriers in exchange for a cut of the payout. Ohio just made it illegal to hide that funding and banned using foreign money to do so.

🚦 CVSA Wants Proof of Passengers On Board. Right now, a trucker's passenger authorization only needs to be kept in a filing cabinet at the carrier's office, not in the truck. Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance (CVSA) says that makes it harder to catch human trafficking victims roadside, and wants FMCSA to require drivers to carry it.

🎣 THE FREIGHT MAGAZINE

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😂 FREIGHT HUMOR

🎧 THE FREIGHT CAVIAR PODCAST

CEO and Owner of Best Express Inc., Salvador Munoz, joined Paul-Bernard Jaroslawski on the FreightCaviar podcast to discuss why Juárez is becoming a high-tech manufacturing hub, how cross-border trucking actually operates, why rising diesel costs have become a business killer, why the driver shortage is not just about finding drivers, and more.

Watch it on YouTube, or listen to the full episode on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.