Trucking Industry's Slow Squeeze on Capacity

The trucking industry is showing signs of stabilization, but challenges persist. Recent data from the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, compiled by Trucking Dive, reveals a complex picture of the market's shift in Q2 2024.

Key Findings:

• April saw about 9,000 trucking businesses exit the market
• Exit rates slowed in May and June
• Overall, carrier exits still outpaced new and reinstated operating authorities

Industry Perspective: FTR VP of Trucking Avery Vise notes, "We are seeing the net decline in the carrier population starting to slow." However, he cautions that the change remains "still highly negative in historical terms."

Market Dynamics:

• Over 93,000 more for-hire carriers hold authority compared to February 2020
• Used tractor prices and market stability influence carrier decisions
• New entrants have increased modestly, while exits have slowed

Looking Ahead:

• FTR forecasts favorable conditions no earlier than 2025
• A rebound in 2024 seems unlikely, with potential improvements in Q4 at best

Data Considerations:

• FMCSA operating authority data doesn't fully capture entity size
• Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows a decrease in average employees per establishment
• The total number of establishments has seen a dramatic slowdown

Expert Insight: Jason Miller, interim chair of Michigan State University's Supply Chain Management department, predicts, "I expect 2024's readings will be down from Q3 & Q4 2023 levels."

Source: Trucking Dive