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Up, Up, and Away
The Caviar Desk · May 22, 2026 · 5 min read
Happy Friday. We break down Arrive Logistics May market update in today's feature story.
Plus:
Wall Street Is Bullish on Big Brokers
79 ELDs Revoked, 12 More Just Hit the List
13,273 Trucks Got Parked During Blitz Week
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Question of the Day:
CHR's CEO says the SCOTUS broker liability ruling could push ___% of smaller brokers out of the market.
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🍳 What's Cookin' In Freight
📈 Wall Street Is Bullish on Big Brokers After SCOTUS. The Supreme Court's broker liability ruling has sent transportation stocks surging, with investors betting that consolidation favors the largest players. RXO is emerging as the biggest winner according to Wall Street, with Craig Fuller noting investors are far more bullish on large logistics companies post-decision than they were before. The logic is straightforward: if 20-30% of smaller brokers exit the market as CHR's CEO suggested, the freight they were moving has to go somewhere, and the well-capitalized survivors are first in line to absorb it.
🚨 79 ELDs Revoked, 12 More Just Hit the List. The FMCSA has pulled 79 electronic logging devices from the approved registry since January 2025, with 12 more added this week. Carriers running revoked ELDs face immediate out-of-service orders. Motor carriers have until July 20th to replace revoked devices with a compliant ELD from the registered list. Until then, carriers must revert to paper logs or logging software to record hours of service.
🚛 13,273 Trucks Got Parked. The 2026 CVSA Roadcheck ran last week, resulting in 38,926 inspections and 13,273 out-of-service orders across 25,008 carriers. Last year's Roadcheck ran 56,178 inspections and produced 10,148 OOS orders. This year, 31% fewer inspections resulted in 30% more trucks parked. Brake systems and hours of service were the top violation categories.
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Arrive's Freight Market Update
Arrive Logistics released its May 2026 Freight Market Update this week, showing a freight market tightening more than expected heading into the peak summer shipping season, with no rate relief expected before July 4th.
Arrive pulls together data from DAT, FreightWaves SONAR, ACT Research, Morgan Stanley, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Here are 5 charts of what's happening:
Spot Rates Have Climbed Every Month Since February
National spot rates have climbed every month since February across all modes. Van is now at $2.79, reefer at $3.26, flatbed at $3.60.
According to Arrive Logistics VP of Market Intelligence David Spencer, the next step down isn't coming until after July 4th.
Spot Load Posts Are Up 42% Year-Over-Year
Spot load posts are up 42.4% year-over-year while available trucks are down 7.4%, pushing the van load-to-truck ratio to 7.49 in April, more than double the 3.54 recorded in the same month of 2024.
Van Outbound Tender Rejection Index
Dry van tender rejections hit 16.14% as Roadcheck Week closed out, the highest level since 2022.
Class 8 Tractor Population Average Age
The average age of active Class 8 tractors just hit a decade-high of 6.3 years.
Carriers with aging equipment pulled trucks off the road to avoid inspection risk, taking more capacity offline than a normal cycle would.
Flatbed Load-to-Truck Ratio
Flatbed load-to-truck ratios are up 124.1% year-over-year.
The Bottom Line?
When we interviewed David Spencer in January, he told us he was "kinda bullish" on 2026. By February, he had revised that to "very bullish."
He was right.
The freight market is entering summer hotter and tighter than the early spring softness suggested. Shippers are facing elevated spot rates and capacity pressure through at least early July. Carriers with available trucks are in the best position they have been in years.
To read the full Arrive Insights May 2026 Market Update, click here.
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🌎 Around the Freight Web
🚨 Spot Rates Just Topped the COVID Peak. Craig Fuller posted yesterday that truckload spot rates hit an all-time high of $3.69/mile, surpassing the COVID peak. One construction contractor wrote in the replies that a delivery that cost $1,800 in December ran $6,450 on Tuesday.
📉 Fleets Are Sitting on Their Hands U.S. Class 8 retail sales fell 11.8% in April to 15,941 units, and year-to-date volumes are running 18.2% below the same period last year. Well short of ACT Research's full-year forecast of 225,000 units.
🚂 Intermodal is Quietly Winning Right Now. As truckload rates surge and capacity tightens, intermodal is gaining ground on cost and transit time. CH Robinson's latest data backs it up.
💸 Missouri Man Stole $250K With Fake Unloading Invoices. A man is accused of billing trucking companies for trailer-unloading services that never occurred.
🔗 DOJ Indicts Chinese Container Makers on Price-Fixing. Four of the world's largest shipping container manufacturers were charged with coordinating prices during the pandemic.
🎣 The FreightCaviar Corner
Freight Gong Friday is FreightCaviar's weekly live show, hosted (almost) every Friday from 8–10 AM CST by Paul-Bernard Jaroslawski and Reed Loustalot.
Each week, we bring on operators, analysts, and executives from across the industry for unfiltered conversations about what is actually happening in freight.
This week's guests:
8:30–9:00 AM — Chadd Olesen, CEO of AVRL
9:00–9:30 AM — Ken Adamo, Chief Strategy Officer of EASE Logistics
9:30–10:00 AM — Austin Wallin, VP of Strategy and Technology at KCH Transportation
Tune in here. Presented by OTR Solutions.
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