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Supply chain professor Jason Miller analyzes June truckload data, suggesting the market won't meaningfully flip to carriers until Q2 2025 at the earliest.
As we gear up for July 4th barbecues, trucking companies aren't finding much to celebrate. Supply chain expert Jason Miller's latest analysis of June dry van truckload spot rates paints a pretty bleak picture for carriers hoping for a market turnaround.
"June's spot rate increase is quite weak relative to what we've traditionally seen in dry van TL bull markets." - Jason Miller, Supply Chain Professor.
"Folks who predicted the dry van truckload market flipping from bear to bull in late Q2 or early Q3 likely made an overly optimistic forecast." - Jason Miller
The data suggests carriers hoping for a quick turnaround are in for a rude awakening. The current market conditions appear far more durable than many industry observers predicted.
While unexpected events could always shift the landscape, it looks like shippers will continue to hold pricing power for the foreseeable future. Carriers may need to hunker down and focus on efficiency to weather this extended winter in freight rates.
Source: Jason Miller/LinkedIn
Morgan Stanley's latest TLQURE model forecasts significant increases in truckload spot rates over the next year. What does this mean for the industry?
Southeastern carriers are rejecting loads at the highest rate since July 2022, breaking a two-year trend of low volatility and loose capacity.
Leathers highlighted that inventory levels have normalized, allowing retailers to enter a replenishment cycle not seen in years.
Despite the challenges, the transportation market shows signs of potential regional balance, particularly in the southern markets.
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